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Source: Al Jazeera
It seems unlikely that 2019 will bring peace, democracy, or stability to the Middle East. In mid December President Trump removed 2,000 U.S. troops from Syria and America will likely continue being the major nation involved from outside of the region. Major issues in 2019 will be the conflicts in Syria and Yemen, the Gulf crisis, the U.S. confrontation with Iran, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Without the U.S. in Syria, a greater burden will fall on Turkey, which is competing with Russia and Iran for influence. In Yemen the Saudis and Houthis continue fighting their four year war with no end in sight. The blockade on Qatar by four countries in the region will also likely continue in 2019. After the U.S. imposed two rounds of sanctions on Iran in 2018, the potential for a U.S./Iran conflict has increased. The U.S. has already moved its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which will be the capital of Israel and cut funding to Palestinian refugees. In 2019 the Trump administration focus will workin on improving the Arab-Israeli alliance. Three alliances will be competing for influence to determine the future of the Middle East.
Discussion Questions
1. Was it a good idea for the U.S. to pull troops out of Syria in December? Why or why not?
2. Is the U.S. at risk of war with Iran given the sanctions and increasing tensions in 2018?
3. With Israel imposing its will in 2018, what will likely happen with Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza in 2019?
I believe that Trump was right in way to pull troops out of Syria because he put an end to these interventions and it ends a low-cost, high-impact mission.
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